The United Kingdom faces a high probability of experiencing ransomware attacks using AI-powered malware against its critical national infrastructure by 2028, according to the National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC). The NCSC's annual "State of the Cyber Nation" report warns that artificial intelligence will likely increase the scale and efficiency of cyber operations by hostile actors within the next two years.
The National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC) has assessed that AI-powered malware is "highly likely" to be employed in ransomware attacks targeting the UK's critical national infrastructure (CNI) by 2028. This prediction, detailed in the NCSC's annual "State of the Cyber Nation" report, suggests that hostile actors will leverage artificial intelligence to amplify the scope and effectiveness of their cyber operations in the coming two years. The NCSC's chief executive, Richard Horne, stated that vulnerabilities long tolerated due to underinvestment in technology are now susceptible to exploitation at an unprecedented scale and speed, facilitated by AI.
The NCSC's assessment indicates that by 2028, AI-driven cyber capabilities will likely be applied against known vulnerabilities in legacy technology within CNI, as well as exploiting new attack surfaces created by the deployment of AI tools themselves. The report also suggests that states such as Russia and China will routinely use AI in cyber-attacks to achieve geopolitical objectives, leading to an increase in the sophistication and speed of threats against the UK. China, in particular, is considered by the NCSC to be the country best equipped and most likely to possess the intent to use AI for operations against UK CNI.
Horne emphasized that the era of "tech on the cheap" at the expense of security is over, urging organisations to make significant changes to their cybersecurity practices. He noted that while AI offers opportunities to enhance collective cyber resilience, organisations must urgently address foundational weaknesses and underinvestment, or risk adversaries exploiting these gaps. The NCSC highlighted that AI is not necessarily inventing new attack methods but is making existing vulnerabilities discoverable and exploitable at a scale previously unimaginable. This comes as the government has been investing in defence and resilience capabilities, including cyber defence, and introducing legislation such as the Cyber Security and Resilience Bill. The report follows recent hacking incidents affecting supermarkets across Europe, which exposed vulnerabilities in IT systems.